Land-use effects on mosquito biodiversity and potential arbovirus emergence in the Southern Amazon, Brazil.

The Amazon rainforest is considered the largest reservoir of culicids and arboviruses in the world. It has been under intense human-driven alteration, especially in the so-called 'Arc of Deforestation', located in the eastern and southern regions. The emergence and transmission of infectious diseases are increasing, potentially due to land-use change. We used landscape-scale mosquito surveillance across a forest fragmentation gradient in the southern Amazon to evaluate the relationship between forest disturbance and the composition and structure of mosquito communities with a particular focus on the potential for arbovirus emergence in the region. Generalized linear models and logistic regression were used to associate the degree of landscape disturbance with arbovirus vectors' richness and abundance. A total of 1,960 culicids, belonging to 50 species, were collected from 2015 to 2016. Among these species, 20 have been associated with the transmission of arboviruses. Our results show an association of land use, more specifically small size of forest remnants with more irregular shape and higher edge density, with the increase of arbovirus vectors' richness and abundance. Six species of mosquito vectors exhibited a higher probability of occurrence in landscapes with medium or high degrees of disturbance. Our results indicate that land-use change influences mosquito communities with potential implications for the emergence of arboviruses.

Limiting global-mean temperature increase to 1.5-2 °C could reduce the incidence and spatial spread of dengue fever in Latin America.

The Paris Climate Agreement aims to hold global-mean temperature well below 2 °C and to pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels. While it is recognized that there are benefits for human health in limiting global warming to 1.5 °C, the magnitude with which those societal benefits will be accrued remains unquantified. Crucial to public health preparedness and response is the understanding and quantification of such impacts at different levels of warming. Using dengue in Latin America as a study case, a climate-driven dengue generalized additive mixed model was developed to predict global warming impacts using five different global circulation models, all scaled to represent multiple global-mean temperature assumptions. We show that policies to limit global warming to 2 °C could reduce dengue cases by about 2.8 (0.8-7.4) million cases per year by the end of the century compared with a no-policy scenario that warms by 3.7 °C. Limiting warming further to 1.5 °C produces an additional drop in cases of about 0.5 (0.2-1.1) million per year. Furthermore, we found that by limiting global warming we can limit the expansion of the disease toward areas where incidence is currently low. We anticipate our study to be a starting point for more comprehensive studies incorporating socioeconomic scenarios and how they may further impact dengue incidence. Our results demonstrate that although future climate change may amplify dengue transmission in the region, impacts may be avoided by constraining the level of warming.

After the epidemic: Zika virus projections for Latin America and the Caribbean.

BACKGROUND: Zika is one of the most challenging emergent vector-borne diseases, yet its future public health impact remains unclear. Zika was of little public health concern until recent reports of its association with congenital syndromes. By 3 August 2017 ∼217,000 Zika cases and ∼3,400 cases of associated congenital syndrome were reported in Latin America and the Caribbean. Some modelling exercises suggest that Zika virus infection could become endemic in agreement with recent declarations from the The World Health Organisation. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We produced high-resolution spatially-explicit projections of Zika cases, associated congenital syndromes and monetary costs for Latin America and the Caribbean now that the epidemic phase of the disease appears to be over. In contrast to previous studies which have adopted a modelling approach to map Zika potential, we project case numbers using a statistical approach based upon reported dengue case data as a Zika surrogate. Our results indicate that ∼12.3 (0.7-162.3) million Zika cases could be expected across Latin America and the Caribbean every year, leading to ∼64.4 (0.2-5159.3) thousand cases of Guillain-Barré syndrome and ∼4.7 (0.0-116.3) thousand cases of microcephaly. The economic burden of these neurological sequelae are estimated to be USD ∼2.3 (USD 0-159.3) billion per annum. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Zika is likely to have significant public health consequences across Latin America and the Caribbean in years to come. Our projections inform regional and federal health authorities, offering an opportunity to adapt to this public health challenge.